Sarah Palin can’t win!

Michael Haltman | May 31, 2011 


And neither can most of the rest of these potential Republican candidates.

Electability is all about positions AND likability!

Is the GOP doomed to run just another old political retread?

Can we please get a viable Republican candidate who can appeal to the independent voters while not turning off the GOP base? Is that really too much to ask in a nation of this size?

While I may agree with many of her positions, every time Sarah Palin opens her mouth to speak I cringe. Not because of the words themselves but because of the way that they sound coming out of her mouth.

Is that shallow? I think it is but the likability factor, particularly when running against an incumbent president is huge! It is simply political reality.

Palin and likability

This from a May 4th Quinnipiac poll that showed Palin has 95% name recognition but that 58% of those polled would never vote for her!

Enthusiastic Would consider Would never

Palin: ---------15%------------24%---------------58%


Positions on the issues will matter no doubt. But what matters almost as much is the likability of a candidate. That is just a sad and true fact of politics.

Donald Trump was a perfect case in point. Good on many issues but one of the most unlikable figures on the American scene (his results in the Quinnipiac poll were very close to Sarah Palin).

When someone goes into the voting booth to pull the lever for the candidate of their choice, a variety of factors will go into the mix. For many it is just a straight forward ideological decision.

That was evident when despite the anecdotal evidence that told anyone who bothered to look that Obama was no friend of the Jews or of Israel, the Jews came out in droves to vote for him anyway. Why? That's what liberal Democrats do.

Party-line voting is even more prevalent in the races for lesser positions in state or city government where name recognition is low and all there really is to hang a hat on for those not deeply engaged in the process is political party.

So which voting block matters in 2012?

In the 2012 presidential election in which an incumbent is running, there will be economic factors as well as national security factors that enter the mix. If unemployment stays where it is, the Middle East unrest continues and spreads as it is in Yemen right now and gas prices stay where they are or rise Obama will face severe headwinds.

There may even be ideological factors as some traditional Democrat voting blocks such as Jewish voters may actually come to their senses and realize that the country needs the real change of getting Obama out of the White House.

Independent voters need to be drawn in but will be easy to lose!

The voting block that is absolutely needed to take back the White House are the independents.

The ones who tell me when I ask that who they vote for will depend on who the Republican candidate is.

"Really I say, are you happy with Obama's performance since I assume you voted for him last time?"

"I'm not happy at all!" they say.

If you are unhappy why would you vote for him regardless of the Republican candidate? Just keep your vote in your pocket then!"

That is where the conversation will typically end. No rhyme or reason but simply likability and agreement on some of the issues is what it will take to entice the independents away from making the same mistake that they made the last time.

That being said, can't we come up with someone who is good on the issues and who is likable as well?

That's not to much to ask is it? Is anybody out there?

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