RSSCan Melissa Haluszczak Really Win PA-14?
J.J. Jackson | October 27, 2010
Well, it seems that I am the target of some renewed attacks by Haluszczak supporters here in Pennsylvania’s 14th Congressional District. The attack emails have picked up again from this small group. Even though I have said repeatedly that Melissa is the better candidate, that I intend to vote for her and on and on, I am still getting the same old typical emails from hacks who are either working for her campaign or are just die hard supporters who cannot take any criticism of her ability to promote her message and her campaign. I think the phrase “not ready for prime time” best describes these folks.
Anything short of blind loyalty and praise for Melissa Haluszczak seems to be intolerable to these sorts. But this post is about reality and truth and not about these petty souls. Several of these angry emailers claim that polls show a tight race here in PA-14. This usually then goes into a diatribe about how the GOP and the PACs simply refuse to support her and could put her over the top if they did. I have asked, in each instance, for information on these polls when cited and that the internals be emailed to me. So far there has been no such thing hit my mailbox which makes me wonder about their authenticity and even their very existence.
But after this latest round of complaints about my reporting on the race and the reality of the situation on the ground I decided to reach out to my contacts in various conservative and Republican groups to see if there are any polls with regards to the race here in Pennsylvania’s 14th Congressional District. I did turn up three people who admitted that they did indeed have polling data on the race here. But since they are not public polls and only for internal purposes each of them asked that I grant them anonymity because the data was not for public consumption and that they had in the past declined to release this data to other groups, authors, bloggers, etc.
Here is basically what I have found out in these conversations.
A national conservative PAC polled this race twice, according to my source within the organization. The race was first polled in July and again in September. The results were nearly identical; Doyle (D) – 61% Haluszczak (R) – 28% Bortz (G) – 8% the first time and Doyle (D) – 60% Haluszczak (R) – 27% Bortz (G) – 9%.
A second national PAC (more Republican based than actually conservative) polled this race in August. My source says that the results, without citing exact values, had Doyle with nearly 70% of the vote within the district. More disturbing perhaps is that when it came to name recognition without being prompted with candidate names, the radical Green Party Candidate Mr. Bortz was more easily recognized by a margin of 2:1 over Melissa Haluszczak.
My third source from a Republican campaign donor group told me that they polled the Doyle/Haluszczak/Bortz race last month. I am told that they had Doyle winning with approximately 65% of the vote.
Needless to say I think that this is clearly why no money is flowing into the Haluszczak campaign. Those that whine about my reporting on the race complain that they are not getting help but they have not helped themselves and made any headway. All my sources said that they have declined to funnel money to the race because they were positive that based on previous results such as the 2008 Presidential Election Ms. Haluszczak could not win. In the last election, President Obama carried PA-14 with 70% of the vote. John McCain netted just 29%.
That’s the data I have. Next time one of you Haluszczak hacks email me claiming you have different polling data showing this a close race, I expect you to supply me with the polling packet and detailed results from the source so that I can publish them and report on it.
Could my sources be wrong? Sure they could be. But I need to see data from a reputable polling firm and not some partisan hacks telling me they are wrong. Just your claims that they are wrong will not be enough.
More Analysis:
Mike Doyle has a huge campaign war chest. If he thought he was in danger he would be spending it on ads and yard signs. I haven’t heard a single ad and while Melissa’s yard signs out number Mr. Doyle’s about 20:1 in the district I am having a hard time believing that the voters of this ultra liberal district are going to swing Republican this election. Would I like to see it? Sure I would. Don’t pretend in all of your outrage that I would not revel in Mike Doyle being forced to get a day job other than screwing the American people and stealing our liberties.
But everyone I have talked with and that would share numbers with me agrees. They agree that Melissa’s only hope for a victory is an ultralow turnout where the nearly endangered Conservative here turn out at near 100% and only then can actually outnumber the wild-eyed, pie in the sky, give us your money liberals that are popping up like weeds. This is actually a possibility but as one of my sources above stated, “I give such about a 2% chance.” Well, some chance is better than no chance at all.
On the other side of the equation, while the Haluszczak hacks are attacking me I have been getting some pretty positive emails from my local readers here telling me how many of their friends they have recruited to vote for Melissa since I first started highlighting her here. Several people who otherwise did not know much, if anything, about her before I brought her to their attention have some pretty impressive things to say about their independent efforts to recruit voters. I just don’t believe that it will ultimately be enough. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. But I also won’t be losing sleep on Election Night if she loses either.
I have got better things to do and there are bigger and more winnable fights to fight.
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5 Responses to “Can Melissa Haluszczak Really Win PA-14?”
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NRO says possible upset but cites no polling to support the claim. This is the second site to make this claim lately but based on what? There are no publicly available polls I find for be district. I don’t know what to think.
Haven’t see this claim at NRO. Saw it on Human Evets though without any supporting information to justify it. Would love to know if there is a mystery poll showing this though.
I am one of those rare conservatives in PA-14 and would like to commend the Haluszczak campaign for doing all they could with virtually no money whatsoever.
If someone doesn’t start laying some groundwork to remove Doyle he’s going to die in there sticking it to all of us. He’s one of the reasons the 14th district is such a blighted area.
Keep fighting! Even if you don’t win, you are laying the foundation for the next time around.
Can’t wait for tomorrow!!!
C’mon. Melissa laying groundwork forthe future? All she has done is out up yard signs and make a pitch to a few registered Republicans here. Most voters have no idea who she is. She has done nothing beyond superficial campaigning. I think people who want to credit Melissa for running in a 70-80% Dem district should. But to give her credit for laying groundwork when she has done literally nothing to educate and sway voters here is just unwarranted praise. As good as Melissa probably is as a conservative she has done nothing here to help end the Doyle-era.
If she wins today, which is improbable but not impossible, she wins because she rode the Tsunami and had no hand in it.
It is up to us conservatives! Melissa’s campaign has been no where to be found these past few weeks so since they are asleep on the job we have to pick up the slack. Not sure if they just gave up or what but let’s surprise the He’ll out of Doyle today!