RSSWill The Sun Shine On A Dog’s Ass This Year?
J.J. Jackson | May 28, 2010
When someone who is often wrong and incompotent gets something right there is an old saying that goes, “Even the sun shines on a dog’s ass every now and again.” Well, it is time once again for this year’s federal hurricane forecast! You know, the forecasts that are often the butt end of every joke once the season (June 1 through Nov 30) is over and they are nowhere near accurate?
This year the forecast is for 14 to 23 (gee what a nice wide margin, snicker) named storms in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. That is basically 18.5 storms being predicted +/- 24.3% which is laughable when it comes to the world of statistics an is basically an admission that these people have very little confidence in their predictions. Of course they won’t say how many will make landfall because that would give people something else to pick on at the end of the season and wondering why we take these people seriously.
It bears noting that both Colorado State University and AccuWeather have predicted a smaller range of storms on the lower end of this scale.
Thursday’s NOAA forecast is similar to earlier predictions by researchers at Colorado State University and the AccuWeather commercial weather service. The Colorado State team, led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, forecasts that 15 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin; it says there is a 69% chance of a major hurricane striking land.
AccuWeather predicts that 16-18 named storms will form; six are expected to strike the USA.
And here is the money line from this whole article:
NOAA forecasts for named tropical storms and hurricanes have been accurate in five out of the 10 years in this decade, according to a USA TODAY analysis.
Essentially NOAA has the same accuracy as a coin toss which is not a very good record as of late.
The question is really why is the federal government predicting storms anyway? The task is certainly is not anything that exists under any part of their charter with the States and is, when we get down to brass tacks, a waste of tax payer money. Even more so when you consider there are already people doing it!
Who knows though, maybe their hind ends will get warmed this year. Anything is possible.
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