RSSWars and Rumors of War Part Two
Gene Lalor | May 26, 2010
(Please see “Wars and Rumors or Wars,” http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=1232)
People and nations being what they are, our world has never been starved for war but rarely in history have so many wars of consequence been threatened which are contemporaneous with one another.
All wars are consequential, of course, but most are limited in scope to tribes or other small groups and many are of the civil war variety contained within a single country. The continent of Africa is a case in point.
Today we face three very hot spots any one of which could erupt into a widespread conflagration with the potential of involving various other nations if not resulting in World War III.
An overview of the threats:
Afghanistan and Iraq: The U.S. has been mired in those two interrelated hellholes for almost nine and for seven years respectively and though the president has announced plans to pack up and bug out of both, the outcomes are far from undecided.
The British were defeated by the Afghanis in the 19th century, the Russians in the 2oth. If we are seen as retreating or if we should lose the upcoming, crucial battle in the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar, it will be seen as yet another sign of weakness. In this age of terrorism, that’s not a good image to project.
General Stanley McCrystal has made it known there is no Plan B. For a full analysis of the significance of Kandahar, see this ABC report: http://tiny.cc/fzamm
As for Iraq, we abandoned the urban centers in June and are scheduled to conclude all combat operations before September. All troops will be withdrawn by the end of 2011 according to Obama’s–and Bush’s–plan.
The risks are the same in Iraq as they are in Afghanistan. Should that withdrawal prove premature and the country devolves into Shiite-Sunni sectarian violence once again, it will be interpreted as another American failure and weaken American prestige even further.
Neither field of battle is the equivalent of Viet Nam but the negative consequences of losing and/or a devolution into chaos would be comparable.
North Korea: The Korean War, or U.N. “police action,” never officially ended as is evident from the tensions and high state of readiness that has existed on both sides of the 38th Parallel ever since Panmunjom.
The unprovoked attack in March by the North on a South Korean military vessel has only exacerbated the strained relations between Pyongyang and Seoul.
The Cheonan was torpedoed and sunk on March 26th resulting in 46 dead and after conclusive proof it was an act of war by the forces of the despot Kim Jong Il, South Korea condemned the North and sought support from the impotent U.N. Security Council and China.
Neither was forthcoming.
Just as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Seoul, North Korea announced it was severing all ties with South Korea after Seoul began implementing policies ”slashing trade, resuming propaganda warfare and barring the North’s cargo ships:” http://tiny.cc/scmc3
Always on a war footing to distract his starving people from their deprivations, Kim has nothing to lose and has an ace in the hole–his nuclear and missile programs that could rain destruction down on South Korea and the 36,000 American troops stationed there to keep the peace and ward off attacks.
Israel: The Jewish state has been a virtual powder keg ever since its inception in 1947 and Iran’s relentless pursuit of a nuclear capability has lit the fuse on that keg.
Israel has just begun an air raid “war drill” to prepare its citizens for a missile attack. Lebanon and Syria have accused Israel of warmongering as a result of the planned exercise and speculation has arisen as to Israel’s motivations: “Whether by accident or design, the five-day exercise has fueled speculation over a renewed military clash between Israel and Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran and Syria:” http://tiny.cc/vpva7
As it well knows, Israel’s continued existence isn’t seriously threatened by Hizbollah, Lebanon, or even Syria. Israel’s fight to the death will be had with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president who has serious issues with reality and is convinced the end times are upon us when the Mahdi will return, Israel would be destroyed, chaos will envelop the world and an Islamic theocracy will govern what’s left.
With the extent of Iran’s nuclear and missile technology still a question mark, Israel’s choices are simple: launch pre-emptive strikes which very well could ignite a much larger war or to hunker down and await attack by tactical nuclear missiles possibly by the end of the year.
Based on Israel’s actions in the past, the most likely scenario is pre-emption, with or without the assistance of its only true ally, the United States. However, Barack Obama has shown no empathy for Israel’s interests so the Jewish state will be forced to go it alone.
Whether any of those hotspots boil over soon is obviously a matter of guess work but war and wider war has almost always been the option of choice in the past so there is little reason to anticipate different outcomes in the future.
It’s always good to remember Matthew 24:6– “You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.”
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