Toomey and Specter Race In Pennsylvania Not Forgotten

J.J. Jackson | January 14, 2010 

Originally by J.J. Jackson: for Examiner.com

With the showdown in Massachusetts less than a week away and Democrats posting nowhere near the poll numbers they should in such a heavily liberal and deep blue state, the race for the Pennsylvania Senate seat currently held by Arlen Specter is on the back burner. But it is not forgotten.

Senator Specter, as we all recall, jumped ship from the Republican Party last year when it became abundantly clear that his chances of even getting out of the primary were slim to none. He was losing in virtually every poll, both independent and internal to his campaign, to Pat Toomey. The message was clear that Republican voters had had enough of a man that had repeatedly disappointed them but whom they had settled for to maintain a seat in a blue state. So off to the Democratic Party Specter went and he will now face a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Joe Sestak (PA-7) who is staking out ground to the left of Specter politically in an attempt to woo Democratic Party voters.

If Specter survives and meets up with Pat Toomey for a rematch, Specter barely beat Toomey in the 2004 Republican Primary, early polling has the race tight and not leaning the way Specter would prefer. The latest round of polling, all completed before Christmas is rendering a split decision among voters of the State.

Susquehanna Polling from 10/7 – 10/12 had Specter with a slim one point lead (42% to 41%). That is actually pretty good for Senator Specter considering that just 31% of Pennsylvania voters think Specter deserves another term according to the poll. It also means that he might be pretty much tapped out and while there are a large number of undecideds, those numbers are likely to break for Toomey two to one with approval ratings like that.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll found in polling from 10/20 – 10/25 has Specter up by two points but that just 64% of voters in that poll had chosen a side. Specter polled at 33% to Toomey’s 31%. An incumbent with such a low committed number of voters would rightfully be frightened.

It gets worse from there.

Rasmussen shows Toomey with a four point lead over Specter in polling done on 12/8/2009 and he fares even better against Sestak (44% to 38%). Qunnipiac conducted polling from 12/8 – 12/14 and found the race a tie at 44% each.

Once the Massachusetts election is over expect renewed focus on what is happening in Pennsylvania as the Democrats try their darndest to maintain as big of a majority as they can coming out of this November’s elections.

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